US - This seems to be shaping up as a very traditional pricing year, as something always seems to short the pig supply in the 2nd quarter, writes Allan Bentley, Sales & Service.The semen extender issue that we have all heard about but not much has been reported on should at least be part of the issue at that time.I believe most of that extender was off the market by November 1, 2015. That math adds up to shorter numbers of pigs coming soon. We should see some $80 plus base bids. Watch the next few months and study the actual basis.If the basis is at zero, the futures are going to fight the move higher. If that happens, fine, then sell those cash hogs.I read that the net futures long positions are very high. Exports are very good and domestic pork consumption is also going to be higher than the past. This is shaping up to be a year for pork producers to make some money, using a combination of cash sales and hedging opportunities.
艾伦·本特利(Allan Bentley)写道，由于第二季度生猪供应宛然短缺，美国生猪市场看起来形成了传统定价年。我们所闻到关于精液稀释液的问题在那段光阴报道的不多，至少只透露了问题的一部分，我信服大部分的稀释液在2015年11月1日已经脱离市场，这使得即将上市的猪变少了。我们应该能看到以80美元为基础的定价，察看下几个月的情况并根据实际情况进行研究。要是定价基础处于零点，期货价格将会走高，然后卖猪兑现。我从数据中看到期货的多头仓位较重。未来出口量应该不错，国内猪肉消费水平也将比去年高，猪肉生产商在传统定价年里可以通过现销和对冲机会组合赚到钱。
